The (so far) irresistible rise of Reform UK

The threat of Reform UK has crystallised since the 2024 general election.1 In May 2025, the party won 677 seats and 31 percent of the vote in local elections, taking control of ten councils and two mayoral seats. Andrea Jenkyns, former Conservative MP, became mayor of Greater Lincolnshire and Luke Campbell, a former boxer and Olympic medal winner, was elected mayor in Hull and East Yorkshire. Reform candidate Sarah Pochin won the Runcorn and Helsey by-election with almost 39 percent of the vote. Pochin wasted no time in parliament in calling for a ban on the burqa. In October, she followed up by insisting a TalkTV caller was “absolutely right” to complain about non-white characters in adverts, saying: “It drives me mad when I see adverts full of black people, full of Asian people.” Pochin claimed: “It doesn’t reflect our society. Your average white person, average white family is…not represented anymore.” Reform leader Nigel Farage felt compelled to condemn her remarks as “ugly” but stopped short of conceding they were racist.2

In August 2025, Reform announced that, on forming a government, it would deport more than 650,000 adults it claimed to be illegally in Britain, forcing them and asylum seekers into removal centres in “remote parts of the country”.3 Farage promised an Illegal Migration (Mass Deportation) Bill, revelling in the prospect of “mass deportations”.4 He followed up by vowing to scrap indefinite leave to remain, insisting “welfare will be for UK citizens only” and telling business leaders: “The era of cheap foreign labour is over”.5 Those already with settled status would lose it. Reform MP for East Wiltshire Danny Kruger, who defected from the Tories in September 2025, made the racism of the plan explicit when, in attempting to explain it, he said: “My concern is when whole cities essentially become Muslim. We’re getting a segregated society. We’re seeing…whole communities living an entirely un-British life”.6 Kruger was one of 13 former Tory MPs to join Reform by this date, claiming “the Conservative Party is over”.7

The fact that the Labour-run Home Office had already unveiled plans to lengthen the qualification period for indefinite leave to remain to ten years, while Tory leader Kemi Badenoch pledged to make immigrants wait ten years for indefinite leave to remain and a further five years to apply for British citizenship, only demonstrates how far Reform has dragged mainstream politics to the right.8

Joseph Choonara noted in the previous issue of this journal that Farage promises to deport 650,000 migrants if elected, despite “having told GB News a year ago that it was ‘a political impossibility to deport hundreds of thousands of people’”.9 Financial Times columnist Robert Shrimsley made the same point in October 2025, adding: “Labour’s fear of the issue emboldened Farage and right-wing Conservatives to push the boundaries of legitimate discourse. Inflammatory rhetoric adds to an increasingly hostile environment”.10

Robert Jenrick, would-be replacement for Badenoch, showed the way things are headed despite claims that the “small boats crisis” and incessant attacks on asylum seekers are not about racism. His complaint at not seeing “another white face” when he spent an hour and a half in the Handsworth area of Birmingham exposed the endless focus on migrants for what it is: wholly racist.11 Farage, Reform and Jenrick do not just want to “stop the boats” and deport “illegal” asylum seekers—awful though that would be—they want the removal of non-white faces from Britain.

At the time of writing (early November 2025), the latest YouGov poll put Reform UK on 27 percent support, 7 percentage points ahead of Labour, with the Green Party level with the Conservatives on 16 percent and Liberal Democrats on 15 percent.12 Reform had been ahead in the polls since April 2025 as the government continued to disappoint those who voted for it. Reform’s support remains overwhelmingly older, at 34 percent of those aged 50-64 and 36 percent among over-65s but only 7 percent among 18-24-year-olds. Yet, its support appears evenly spread in England outside the capital. In London, it was only on 13 percent compared with 30-32 percent in the South, Midlands and North. It polled 19 percent in Scotland, 16 points behind the Scottish Nationalist Party, and 21 percent in Wales, seven points behind Welsh nationalists Plaid Cymru.

The Caerphilly by-election for the Welsh assembly, the Senedd, on 23 October 2025, delivered a sharp blow to Labour as Plaid won with 47 percent of the vote to Labour’s 11 percent in a seat Labour had held for 100 years. However, the result also disappointed Reform, which had been touted to win but finished 11 points behind Plaid on a 50 percent turnout.13 The result suggested there is a receptive audience for the slogan “Don’t Vote Reform UK!” if there is a widely perceived alternative to Labour on the ballot.

The by-election followed a period of considerable momentum for Reform as Labour leader Keir Starmer continually tried to match Farage with being tough on migration, and Farage repeatedly moved the goal posts to the right. The Reform leader made hay through weeks of anti-migrant demonstrations outside hotels accommodating asylum seekers despite a significant response and counter protests by anti-racists. The end of August 2025 saw a concerted effort to blanket the country in St George and Union Jack flags, led by the far right. Starmer and then Home Secretary Yvette Cooper sided with the flag wavers, absurdly claiming to have England flags on display at home.14 The government’s feeble reaction allowed Reform-run authorities such as Kent County Council to leave the flags flying.15 The combination of Reform’s rise, the anti-refugee protests, the flags and Labour’s feeble showing ensured the demonstration called by the fascist Tommy Robinson in London on 13 September became the largest far-right gathering in British history.16

Against this background, Reform held a 5,000-strong party conference—more a rally—in Birmingham in September, described as “overwhelmingly, if not exclusively, white”.17 Reflecting on the conference in the London Review of Books, Peter Geoghegan explained: “Most of the people I met in Birmingham wanted the small boats stopped but also investment in the NHS and higher wages.” Geoghegan recorded an undercurrent of racism towards the party’s head of policy and former chair Zia Yusuf, noting that one attendee asked: “How can you be against Islamisation and have a Muslim in a position like that?”18 The undercurrent broke into the open when Yusuf briefly resigned as party chair in June 2025, citing the abuse he received.19 Geoghegan quoted former Leave EU director of communications Andy Wigmore pointing out how Farage calibrates his statements to pull debate to the right, citing how he moved from arguing mass deportations were not possible to pledging to carry them out. Wigmore said: “Nigel knows how to push the conversation, but he understands that you have to do it gradually”.20

Consistent support from fascists

This journal has previously identified Farage as a Powellite—by his own admission, a follower of the racist Tory politician Enoch Powell, infamous for his 1968 “Rivers of Blood” speech and nostalgia for empire.21 Farage has had a long association with the far right and has openly acknowledged Powell as his political hero. Yet, whereas Powell never distanced himself from the fascists thrilled by his 1968 speech and was pushed to the margins of establishment politics as a result, Farage learned to distance himself from the Nazis he attracts like flies. He goes so far as to reject allegations that he, his party or policies are racist, understanding how this could damage him.22 So, he responded to allegations of his teenage racism made by multiple former fellow school students in November 2025 with the usual denials. Those who remember him appear to have no illusions that Farage then and now remains essentially the same. One recalled: “he was profoundly, precociously racist”, another said of the 18-year-old Farage’s fascist chanting “it was habitual” and a third noted that “the man I see on TV now is the 17-year-old I remember”, insisting of Farage’s denials: “He is straight up lying”.23

It is no coincidence that Farage’s parties, the UK Independence Party and Reform UK, have consistently attracted fascists. In May 2025, the BBC reported on a “[f]ar-right leaders’ attempt to hijack Reform”, identifying former British National Party member and Patriotic Alternative founder Mark Collett and fellow fascist David Clews’ “plans to push the party towards extremist views”. Collett admitted: “We’re using Reform as a wrecking ball”.24

In September 2024, Farage pledged to “rigorously” vet Reform UK candidates, admitting to “some pretty catastrophic failures.” He claimed, “We don’t want extremists, we don’t want bigots”, while also insisting local associations would “choose their own candidates”.25 Yet, in July 2025, Reform did the opposite and loosened its vetting. It told members in an email: “If you have previously failed vetting, you are encouraged to re-apply”.26 Yusuf, who had advocated “tougher” vetting when party chair, showed more concern about Tories joining than fascists, accusing the Conservatives of “sending defectors to try to take us down”.27

However, this leads to one of several sources of tension in and around Reform. Its attraction of fascists continually threatens to break down the firewall Farage seeks to create between Nazis and his party, hoping to distance Reform from Robinson and to exclude those like former Reform deputy leader and founder of far-right rival Advance UK Ben Habib, who are attracted to allying with Robinson’s street forces. Habib argues Robinson and Reform are in the same camp. Similarly, former Reform MP Rupert Lowe—suspended from the party in March 2025 after criticising Farage and drawing support from Elon Musk—set up his own Restore Britain group to campaign for mass deportations.28

The tensions will not disappear because Farage and Robinson are bedfellows in building anti-immigrant movements, united in demanding mass deportations and demonising asylum seekers, branding them sex offenders and a threat to British women—a familiar racist trope.29 Their supporters inevitably overlap. Reform also rejects key elements of democracy, such as equal rights for all, which means it cannot free itself of association with fascists. Hence, the party provides a platform for fascists regardless of Farage’s claims to the contrary. At the same time, the “division of labour” between Farage and Robinson increases the threat. In Britain, we now face a large far-right street movement led by fascists and a far-right, non-fascist electoral party. This is in contrast to France and Italy, where the main political expression of fascism lies in contesting elections.30

The councils that Reform now controls provide a second source of tension. The contradictions between the party’s claims that it can make sweeping cuts in spending and council tax and the reality of bankrupt authorities and essential services starved of funds are increasingly exposed. Farage and Yusuf promised to save “a lot of money” in these councils through a programme modelled on Elon Musk’s Department of Government Efficiency in the United States.31 Following the May 2025 elections, Farage warned council workers employed on diversity and net zero initiatives or working from home to “seek alternative careers very, very quickly”.32

The resulting tension has been most clear at Kent County Council, where, at the time of writing, nine of the 57 Reform councillors in post in May 2025 had been suspended or resigned.33 Yusuf claimed the council paid for TV licences and excursions for asylum seekers when the trips were for children in care, and a Reform cabinet member confessed: “We’re not looking at asylum at all.” Council leader Linden Kemkaran hailed Kent as a “shop window” for everyone “to see what a Reform government might look like”.34 However, a leaked video of a Reform council members’ meeting revealed bitter infighting, with Kemkaran telling members to “fucking suck it up”.35 Far from cutting council tax, the council appeared poised to raise it by the maximum allowed.36

This relates to a third area of tension: the gap between Reform leaders’ Thatcherite policies and their attempt to appeal to working class voters. The Centre for a Better Britain (CBB), a thinktank set up to draft Reform policy, makes clear the party’s embrace of Thatcherism. The chair of its advisory board, James Orr, is a leading member of the national conservative movement and a mentor of US vice-president JD Vance. Run by former Reform chief operating officer Jonathan Brown, the CBB aims to raise funds from allies of president Donald Trump, tech interests and “religious conservatives” and “support Reform with policy development, briefing and rebuttal”.37 Its policy plans include cutting state services, axing diversity, equity and inclusion and net zero initiatives, moving to insurance-based health care and building links with Tories. A CBB document acknowledged the conflict between Reform leaders’ views and the ideas of most voters, noting: “The party will need a view on how it reconciles the Thatcherite instincts of much of its leadership with the statist attitudes of many of its voters.” Orr warned that a Reform government would force “nasty medicine down the country’s throat”.38

The Thatcherite core of the party is reflected in the parade of Tory defectors to Reform, including Westminster councillor Laila Cunningham, who admits to being a “huge fan” of Margaret Thatcher and is tipped to be candidate for London mayor.39 It extends to private discussion of an alliance between the parties despite both leaderships insisting publicly there will be no such thing. Robert Jenrick has refused to rule out allying with Farage and the Spectator reported “discussions have taken place” on a non-aggression pact, a division of seats or even a merged party for which there is already a name: the Reformed Conservative Party”.40 This appeals to the substantial Thatcherite base of Reform voters who have defected from the Tories. Reform is also attempting to build a wider base of support, as Boris Johnson did in 2019, among disaffected Labour voters who will tend to favour public spending and state control of utilities, such as the railways and water companies.

Farage remains adept at presenting himself as speaking on behalf of ordinary workers and against the establishment. At the same time, he is a former City of London trader with multiple sources of income and a coterie of fabulously wealthy backers.41 In April 2025, he called for the British Steel plant in Scunthorpe to be renationalised, claiming “I worked for 22 years in the metals industry” and on May Day posed with Reform’s deputy leader Richard Tice and Lincolnshire major Andrea Jenkyns holding “Save our steel” posters. Property millionaire Tice even wore a trade union badge in the House of Commons, while Farage claimed in a Daily Mail column that Reform is “the party of working people” and “friend to the unions”.42 Yet, Farage, a metals trader not a metal worker, led Reform MPs in opposing the government’s Employment Rights Bill, which initially promised extended rights to sick pay and protection from unfair dismissal, while his party advocates tax relief on private school fees and private healthcare.43

Reform’s policy announcements have been strictly pro-business, including axing corporation tax on profits for more than one million smaller businesses and making firing easier for employers.44 Farage has also pledged to install “top business leaders” in government if elected. The Financial Times reported business leaders and their representatives attended a series of Reform events through the summer of 2025 “in an effort to influence policies with a party seen as a real contender at the next election”, including a dinner with 20 corporate chiefs at Farage’s favourite restaurant in Belgravia at which they discussed slashing regulation and government spending.45

Another area of tension lies in Farage’s relationship with Trump. Trump has his own problems, of course.46 Financial Times columnist Janan Ganesh noted the risk for Farage in embracing Trump, citing a YouGov poll finding that 70 percent of voters in Britain dislike the president and suggesting he risks a similar fate to the former leader of Australia’s right-wing Liberal Party, Peter Dutton, who tied himself to Trump in the run-up to the Australian general election in May 2025 and not only lost the election but also his parliamentary seat.47 Yet, Farage appears unable to distance himself from Trump on anything—no doubt the price of the president’s favour. So, when Trump asserted a link between childhood autism and paracetamol taken during pregnancy, Farage declined to diverge from the claim telling LBC radio: “Who knows?”48

Farage also shares Trump’s enthusiasm for cryptocurrencies, a hotbed of tax avoidance, money laundering and fraud. Reform has said it will accept cryptocurrency donations and, if elected, allow tax payments in crypto.49 The Reform leader sought financial backing from “digital asset” investors, speaking at two conferences of crypto enthusiasts in London in October alone, attempting to ape Trump who amassed millions of dollars in donations from crypto players. Several Reform members attended a cross-party crypto dinner in the House of Lords, with one attendee suggesting: “They’re building some kind of white male coalition”.50 The party’s attitude to crypto is not just about aping Trump and appealing to investors, it also conforms to the libertarian ideas of tech evangelists who see crypto as a means to undermine governments and currencies supported by tax, thereby diminishing some limited democratic control the population has over politicians’ actions.

The terrain has shifted

Reform’s focus on asylum seekers and small boats crossing the Channel remains the thin end of a wedge when the real target is immigration in its entirety, including people of British Afro-Caribbean, Muslim and Asian heritage, and not just those who arrived in Britain most recently. That is why Farage speaks of parts of the country being “unrecognisable” and of feeling “uncomfortable” that “in many parts of England you don’t hear English spoken anymore”.51

Farage has succeeded in shifting the political terrain sharply to the right and making racist ideas “respectable” in a way they have not been since the 1970s, despite anti-racists contesting this shift every step of the way. The Reform leader and the Labour leadership’s abject concession to his targeting of asylum have also created both a space and an audience for Robinson to espouse his Islamophobia and breathe new life into efforts to build a fascist street-fighting force. This requires a response on a scale we have not seen since the high point of the Anti-Nazi League and Rock Against Racism in the 1970s, which contributed to shifting British society sharply in an anti-racist direction.52

The contradictions within Reform UK will help, as will the surge in support for a left-leaning Green Party under new leader Zack Polanski.53 The huge support for a new political formation on the left, Your Party, can be a massive boost if the focus is on a mass campaign to build a fighting, anti-racist, left alternative.54 The feebleness of the Labour government and its kowtowing to Farage will all the while push in the opposite direction. Elections for the Scottish and Welsh assemblies and for local authorities in England in May 2026, together with the risk that millions of people who do not normally vote could be drawn to Reform, make the left’s task all the more urgent.

The size of Robinson’s demonstration in September raised the stakes significantly, with Britain no longer an exception to the rise of the far right across Europe. Anti-racists must confront both an increasingly assertive far-right movement on the streets and a growing far-right electoral threat while preventing a fusion of the electoral and street movements. Reform is in many ways the tougher challenge. However, the threat is also increasingly clear to millions. As the black British writer, academic and activist Gary Younge argued at the Marxism 2025 festival in London: “A range of people who once thought they were safe are no longer safe. If we retreat into our silos, they will come for each of us in turn. Do you honestly think they are going to stop with trans people or with asylum seekers?”55

Ian Taylor is a journalist based in London and a member of the International Socialism editorial board.

Notes